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 predictive system


Feedback Detection for Live Predictors

Stefan Wager, Nick Chamandy, Omkar Muralidharan, Amir Najmi

Neural Information Processing Systems

A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze predictor feedback detection as a causal inference problem, and introduce a local randomization scheme that can be used to detect non-linear feedback in real-world problems. We conduct a pilot study for our proposed methodology using a predictive system currently deployed as a part of a search engine.


A Guide to Misinformation Detection Datasets

Thibault, Camille, Peloquin-Skulski, Gabrielle, Tian, Jacob-Junqi, Laflamme, Florence, Guan, Yuxiang, Rabbany, Reihaneh, Godbout, Jean-François, Pelrine, Kellin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Misinformation is a complex societal issue, and mitigating solutions are difficult to create due to data deficiencies. To address this problem, we have curated the largest collection of (mis)information datasets in the literature, totaling 75. From these, we evaluated the quality of all of the 36 datasets that consist of statements or claims. We assess these datasets to identify those with solid foundations for empirical work and those with flaws that could result in misleading and non-generalizable results, such as insufficient label quality, spurious correlations, or political bias. We further provide state-of-the-art baselines on all these datasets, but show that regardless of label quality, categorical labels may no longer give an accurate evaluation of detection model performance. We discuss alternatives to mitigate this problem. Overall, this guide aims to provide a roadmap for obtaining higher quality data and conducting more effective evaluations, ultimately improving research in misinformation detection. All datasets and other artifacts are available at https://misinfo-datasets.complexdatalab.com/.


Feedback Detection for Live Predictors

Neural Information Processing Systems

A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze predictor feedback detection as a causal inference problem, and introduce a local randomization scheme that can be used to detect non-linear feedback in real-world problems. We conduct a pilot study for our proposed methodology using a predictive system currently deployed as a part of a search engine.


FAT Forensics: A Python Toolbox for Implementing and Deploying Fairness, Accountability and Transparency Algorithms in Predictive Systems

Sokol, Kacper, Hepburn, Alexander, Poyiadzi, Rafael, Clifford, Matthew, Santos-Rodriguez, Raul, Flach, Peter

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predictive systems, in particular machine learning algorithms, can take important, and sometimes legally binding, decisions about our everyday life. In most cases, however, these systems and decisions are neither regulated nor certified. Given the potential harm that these algorithms can cause, their qualities such as fairness, accountability and transparency (FAT) are of paramount importance. To ensure high-quality, fair, transparent and reliable predictive systems, we developed an open source Python package called FAT Forensics. It can inspect important fairness, accountability and transparency aspects of predictive algorithms to automatically and objectively report them back to engineers and users of such systems. Our toolbox can evaluate all elements of a predictive pipeline: data (and their features), models and predictions. Published under the BSD 3-Clause open source licence, FAT Forensics is opened up for personal and commercial usage.


What and How of Machine Learning Transparency: Building Bespoke Explainability Tools with Interoperable Algorithmic Components

Sokol, Kacper, Hepburn, Alexander, Santos-Rodriguez, Raul, Flach, Peter

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Explainability techniques for data-driven predictive models based on artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms allow us to better understand the operation of such systems and help to hold them accountable. New transparency approaches are developed at breakneck speed, enabling us to peek inside these black boxes and interpret their decisions. Many of these techniques are introduced as monolithic tools, giving the impression of one-size-fits-all and end-to-end algorithms with limited customisability. Nevertheless, such approaches are often composed of multiple interchangeable modules that need to be tuned to the problem at hand to produce meaningful explanations. This paper introduces a collection of hands-on training materials -- slides, video recordings and Jupyter Notebooks -- that provide guidance through the process of building and evaluating bespoke modular surrogate explainers for tabular data. These resources cover the three core building blocks of this technique: interpretable representation composition, data sampling and explanation generation.


Testing predictive automated driving systems: lessons learned and future recommendations

Gonzalo, Rubén Izquierdo, Maldonado, Carlota Salinas, Ruiz, Javier Alonso, Alonso, Ignacio Parra, Llorca, David Fernández, Sotelo, Miguel Á.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conventional vehicles are certified through classical approaches, where different physical certification tests are set up on test tracks to assess required safety levels. These approaches are well suited for vehicles with limited complexity and limited interactions with other entities as last-second resources. However, these approaches do not allow to evaluate safety with real behaviors for critical and edge cases, nor to evaluate the ability to anticipate them in the mid or long term. This is particularly relevant for automated and autonomous driving functions that make use of advanced predictive systems to anticipate future actions and motions to be considered in the path planning layer. In this paper, we present and analyze the results of physical tests on proving grounds of several predictive systems in automated driving functions developed within the framework of the BRAVE project. Based on our experience in testing predictive automated driving functions, we identify the main limitations of current physical testing approaches when dealing with predictive systems, analyze the main challenges ahead, and provide a set of practical actions and recommendations to consider in future physical testing procedures for automated and autonomous driving functions.


The Future of Indian Policing with Artificial Intelligence in 2022 and Beyond

#artificialintelligence

AI can be a powerful tool for law enforcement and help in addressing many types of crimes. It can help law enforcement to optimize their resources in specific areas and at specific times, to cover as much ground as possible with the same or even fewer resources. Drones with sensors, for instance, can also be used to detect illegal movements such as illegal border crossings, human traffickers, and vessels illegally fishing. Location is a powerful piece of information for AI systems. In India too, artificial intelligence tools are increasingly being put to use.


D-BSSE eSymposium _1 June 2021

#artificialintelligence

Talk: Real-time Prediction of COVID-19 related Mortality using Electronic Health Records (30')


Why are Artificial Intelligence systems biased?

#artificialintelligence

A machine-learned AI system used to assess recidivism risks in Broward County, Fla., often gave higher risk scores to African Americans than to whites, even when the latter had criminal records. The popular sentence-completion facility in Google Mail was caught assuming that an "investor" must be a male. A celebrated natural language generator called GPT, with an uncanny ability to write polished-looking essays for any prompt, produced seemingly racist and sexist completions when given prompts about minorities. Amazon found, to its consternation, that an automated AI-based hiring system it built didn't seem to like female candidates. Commercial gender-recognition systems put out by industrial heavy-weights, including Amazon, IBM and Microsoft, have been shown to suffer from high misrecognition rates for people of color.


Why are Artificial Intelligence systems biased?

#artificialintelligence

A machine-learned AI system used to assess recidivism risks in Broward County, Fla., often gave higher risk scores to African Americans than to whites, even when the latter had criminal records. The popular sentence-completion facility in Google Mail was caught assuming that an "investor" must be a male. A celebrated natural language generator called GPT, with an uncanny ability to write polished-looking essays for any prompt, produced seemingly racist and sexist completions when given prompts about minorities. Amazon found, to its consternation, that an automated AI-based hiring system it built didn't seem to like female candidates. Commercial gender-recognition systems put out by industrial heavy-weights, including Amazon, IBM and Microsoft, have been shown to suffer from high misrecognition rates for people of color.